The New Zealand Air Force is helping to clean-up Auckland’s streets after historic floods swamped many parts of the city, while tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is projected to threaten the top of the North Island early next week.

Residents in the upper North Island are being warned to brace for severe weather as the cyclone looms, with the worst weather expected on Monday and Tuesday.

This morning the Thames Coromandel district extended its state of emergency for another seven days and Auckland mayor Wayne Brown urged Aucklanders to “be prepared for the worst” as another potentially severe storm is set to hit the flood-ravaged region in three days.

Auckland Civil Defence is warning residents to use the next few days to get ready for what could be another significant event.

MetService says the Auckland region can expect wind from Cyclone Gabrielle from Sunday night but the worst weather will come on Monday and Tuesday.

The agencies are expecting strong winds, heavy rain and wild seas. Mayor Wayne Brown said power outages were more likely this time and he advised people to get torches and batteries on hand.

✈️🚛🤝NZ Air Force and our Auckland Waste Management teams are working together across Tāmaki Makaurau to remove flood-damaged items from our streets.

Ka mau te wehi and thank you to our rear loaders! 🙌

— Auckland Emergency Management (AEM) (@AucklandCDEM) February 9, 2023

Aucklanders are advised to have enough supplies to sustain themselves for three days. People reliant on medication are advised to have enough to get through the next week.

Officials are preparing to open a number of additional Civil Defence centres across the region in case people needed to evacuate. They are making contingency plans to access or move the centres if access is blocked.

Brown said Auckland was facing a challenge on the heels of an unprecedented event.

He said public resources across the region were stretched and he was asking Aucklanders to “please get prepared”.

Aucklanders were magnificent in the face of the flooding of two weeks ago, Brown said.

But he is promising to keep everyone much better informed this time.

“We’re all working together on this one and this time we’ll do a better job of keeping you informed all the way along.”

Asked for any reassurances for Aucklanders hard-hit by the last round of flooding, Brown said: “We’re doing our absolute best to prepare for this, but you can’t wish it away, you have to face it”.

“It’s not looking good,” Brown said.

“This time we do have the advantage of knowing it’s coming.”

Brown is considering whether to extend the state of emergency. He will take advice on it and make a decision before the end of the current seven-day extension, which ends tomorrow.

Brown said this time officials had the opportunity to double-check everything beforehand so communication could be better.

Brown said there was no warning last time so that made things difficult for all those involved.

Power outages should be expected as the ground is already waterlogged and trees and poles that weren’t subjected to heavy wind last time, will be this time.

“We’re preparing for the worst and hoping for the best,” Brown said.

“I wish I could reassure people about the weather but I don’t control that,” he said.

“Every lesson that could be learned has been learned,” Brown said.

Auckland Emergency Management’s Rachel Kelleher said Cyclone Gabrielle could have a potentially significant impact around the top of the North Island.

However at this point, there is still some uncertainty about where it will head. From early Sunday they should have a clearer picture of what impact the storm will have.

“We need to be doing what we can in these intervening days to prepare,” she said.

“We won’t have an absolute degree of confidence about how severe it will be until Sunday.

“It has the wind element that the previous event didn’t have.

“With the type of wind that could come with an event like this, we expect trees to come down and further slips with heavy rainfall.”

If Cyclone Gabrielle does come across Auckland it will bring very heavy winds, which could down power lines and cause localised heavy downpours, flooding and coastal erosion from sea surges.

People should think about how to secure things that could move around such as trampolines, outdoor umbrellas, or things that could lift up, fly away and cause damage to people or properties, Kelleher said.

Deputy Mayor Desley Simpson said the big Auckland clean-up has just become much more urgent.

“It’s very clear that we have to get this curbside rubbish away before the next storm.”

She asked those who had a trailer and were able to help with the clean-up to call the 0800 number and offer their assistance.

Asked about people impersonating council workers and then looting houses of those hit in the last round of flooding, Kelleher said people should always ask for credentials of anyone saying they’re from the council or a building inspector.

“I can’t believe that people could carry out that sort of action on people who are already suffering.”

However, she added, people should not be staying in a red-stickered property for their own safety.

Sixteen out of 18 weather models this morning show Cyclone Gabrielle making a direct hit on New Zealand with damaging winds and torrential rainfall likely across much of the North Island.

Niwa, MetService and Weather Watch have today announced the storm is likely to make landfall in the north of the country on Monday or Tuesday bringing winds of up to 150km/h and up to 300mm of rain.

Auckland and the Coromandel remain in a State of Emergency after the deadly Auckland Anniversary weekend storm that killed four people, and caused widespread flooding and dozens of landslides.

“The direct path of Cyclone Gabrielle is uncertain at this stage, and while we are hoping for the best, we must all be prepared for the worst,” Brown said.

“Residents and council workers should clear drains, berms and rubbish to prevent flooding and potential public health risks.

“Local iwi and community groups, including the Student Volunteer Army, are on hand to support residents, and the Defence Force has been activated to assist ahead of any severe weather.”

Brown urged people to check on friends, whānau and neighbours ahead of the cyclone.

“Many communities are already in challenging situations and we are prioritising those communities in need and at greatest risk of further flooding and potential harm.”

Thames-Coromandel mayor Len Salt said he signed the declaration to extend the state of emergency this morning after being briefed on the impact the impending cyclone could have on the district early next week.

The cyclone is due to arrive on Monday, pass through by Thursday, and deliver heavy rain, storm surges and severe gale-force winds.

”Further briefings with MetService, Waikato Regional Council and Civil Defence are in progress, and we will provide an update later this afternoon,” said Civil Defence controller Garry Towler.

”In the meantime, it’s a good idea to use the break in the weather to prepare for the event, stock up on essentials and meds, including gas and batteries.”

Kelleher said work was under way across the region to clear up debris from the recent storm before the next one.

“The council’s waste solutions team is working with the NZDF to clear items and belongings from kerbsides across the region as quickly as possible to ensure they don’t cause further issues in the event of further flooding,” Kelleher said.

“The council’s healthy waters teams are working to clear stormwater drains and culverts prior to the predicted arrival of the storm.

“This includes clearing hot spots and blockages around catchpits and inlet grilles and removing debris from accessible streams and waterways.

“We’re asking Aucklanders to pitch in to help get their communities storm-ready by ensuring kerbs and any inlet grills on and around properties are clear before Sunday evening.”

She appealed for residents to take any flood-damaged items to a council drop-off facility before Sunday and not to put any additional items out on the kerb for collection.

Philip Duncan, of WeatherWatch, says the impending cyclone is one of the “most serious storms of the century”.

“While no official warnings are yet locked in this far in advance, the data this morning means the likelihood of severe weather across much of the North Island looks highly likely,” Duncan said.

“If this current modelling comes true, this will likely be the most serious storm to impact New Zealand this century - especially with Auckland being in the mix for a potential direct hit.”

Niwa is warning most models show the cyclone making landfall in the North Island on Monday or Tuesday.

“Should this occur, very heavy rain, damaging winds and dangerous seas would be expected.”

MetService agrees it is looking more likely Gabrielle will bring severe weather to New Zealand shores, with most models showing it will hit the country.

“Damaging winds, flooding rain and coastal inundation are things to watch out for from Sunday onward.”

Today’s forecasting has prompted Northland Civil Defence to prepare for the storm.

The @niwa_nz ensemble system shows a range of possible cyclone track scenarios.

The cyclone's exact track will play a very important role as to which regions experience the worst weather.

As you might notice, there is still some uncertainty, but most members show an impact!

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) February 8, 2023

“MetService New Zealand are starting to get a better picture of Cyclone Gabrielle and It’s looking more and more likely that it will bring severe weather to our shores,” Northland Civil Defence said on Facebook.

“MetService currently has moderate confidence of severe gales for Northland on Sunday, with high confidence of warning amounts of rain and gales for Northland from Monday to Tuesday.

“Very large waves and a storm surge are also expected to affect northern and eastern coastlines from Northland to Gisborne from Sunday into Monday.”

They urged people to keep up to date with the latest weather information and prepare for severe weather,

Cyclone Gabrielle was recently confirmed to become a category three weather event.

At least a month’s worth of rain is expected to fall.

🌀#DevelopingNews: ⚠️Direct hit from #CycloneGabrielle looking more likely & “extremely concerning” (+11 Maps) via @weatherwatchnz

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) February 8, 2023

The forecaster predicts a high chance of warning amounts of rain for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, northern and eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne from Monday to Tuesday.

The cone of uncertainty is narrowing. The latest official BoM extended track map snakes Cyclone Gabrielle into the upper North Island impacting Sun to Wed. Global models continue to produce a jet stream powered extratropical cyclone deepening on approach.

— Hauraki Gulf Weather (@GulfHauraki) February 8, 2023

Thames Coromandel District Council civil defence controller Garry Towler is considering the options of the current State of Emergency given the possible intensity of the cyclone.

”We will have a much clearer picture by Friday on where the cyclone is tracking and what we are likely to face on the Coromandel next week, so having the wide range of powers and access to resources if we need them will be the key as to whether we stay in a declared or transition state,” he said.

Whāngarei mayor Vince Cocurullo told RNZ it was early days and there would be a clearer idea of what the effect on the region would be by Friday.

He told Northlanders to be prepared, especially those in flood-prone areas.

“For Northland especially, it does come down to when the high tides also come. The high tides are peaking at about one o’clock on Sunday and Monday. As long as you’re preparing yourself for a tidal surge at the same time, that’s when problems really happen in the flood-prone areas.”

He said people needed to make sure their drains were clean before the storm came and keep checking in with MetService and Civil Defence and be aware of the latest forecast.

Ministry of Education operations and integration leader Sean Teddy said their incident management team was keeping a close eye on the developing weather and would coordinate with the emergency management agencies leading the response.

He said any decisions would be based on information from those agencies.