Becoming part of any elite squad in the world requires extreme levels of discipline, dedication, and skill with a pinch of luck. Apart from the aforementioned traits, luck is the factor that gave the New Zealand-born Red Bull talent Liam Lawson a taste of F1. It was a case of one man’s opportunity in another man’s misfortune, with the hand injury of Daniel Ricciardo giving Lawson a run in his AlphaTauri. However, will this opportunity become more permanent for Lawson in the 2025 season, with the contract extension for Sergio Perez looking highly unlikely?

The Mexican has been extremely unpredictable and inconsistent in his output for the Austrian team. Despite the P2 and securing Red Bull’s first-ever 1-2 in the Drivers’ Championship despite some hesitation, his overall season was disappointing. These inconsistent performances could open doors for Lawson to join the circus in 2025 on a more permanent and long-term basis. However, will it be a seat at AlphaTauri, or will he jump the queue and get the highly sought-after Red Bull seat?

How can Liam Lawson make his way back to the premier class in 2025?

With the assumption that Perez will not drive for Red Bull beyond 2024, the young talent will be rubbing his hands in anticipation as he waits for his chance in F1 again. He might be presented with two opportunities for 2025, and he’s already proved his worth in one seat. So, let’s explore the two possibilities.

1. Daniel Ricciardo gets promoted to Red Bull, and Liam Lawson takes the baton at AlphaTauri

Ever since Ricciardo made his return and replaced Nyck de Vries at AlphaTauri, he has been pipped to become the second Red Bull driver next to Max Verstappen, replacing Perez. The Australian also proved his worth with incredible results after putting on the AlphaTauri overalls. He secured multiple points finishes in his limited races for the team, and we all remember his astonishing weekend in Mexico.

With the general understanding that AlphaTauri will be highly competitive in 2024 – considering it will incorporate more pace-setter Red Bull’s components – Ricciardo will get another chance to prove his worth for the enticing second Red Bull seat. The Australian will have to beat his teammate convincingly and hope Perez’s qualifying blunders and poor race outputs continue well into 2024.

Liam Lawson Massively Credits Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo for Sensational F1 Debut

This scenario will see Riccairdo promoted to Red Bull and leave his AlphaTauri seat vacant. Lawson will be a no-brainer for the AlphaTauri seat, as his five-race stint, including a P9 in Singapore on his track debut, was enough to prove his worth. However, was it enough to make him a Red Bull candidate?

2. Liam Lawson replaces an out-of-contract Sergio Perez in 2025

Sergio Perez is the only driver since Ricciardo who has managed to keep a hold of his seat at Red Bull for multiple years. The dominating nature of Max Verstappen and the high expectations at the Milton Keynes outfit always played a part in the quick replacements. However, Perez used all his experience and racing prowess to become a solid figure in the Red Bull garage and persisted the pressure. But now, he’s slowly succumbing to it.

It is all because, after playing second fiddle till 2022, Perez wanted to up the ante and made an open claim for the Drivers’ Championship, challenging his teammate. As we all know, it did not fare well for the Mexican, who fell off-track in his charge, enough to put his seat under threat. If this continues in 2024, and Ricciardo can’t prove his worth in the AlphaTauri car, Lawson might get the nod to join Red Bull.

Lawson might replace Perez in the middle of the season if push comes to shove and Red Bull feels like cutting its losses. The advisor, Dr. Helmut Marko, subtly hinted toward it during an interview reported by GP Fans. When asked about Lawson’s future in the sport and the possibility of joining Red Bull in 2025, he replied, “Yes, [he could drive for Red Bull in 2025]. And before that, he should at least drive a few more races so that we can see where his potential really lies.”

However, he wasn’t averse to the idea of getting him race time mid-season as well and putting Perez out of a seat. “As of now, [Perez] will fulfill his contract until the end of 2024, then we’ll see,” said Marko.

We can also interpret this statement as the Red Bull hierarchy taking enough time to assess their options and make a decision. The bosses will weigh their options after Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda’s performances in 2024 before fitting the Liam Lawson piece in a seat.

Many believe Ricciardo is the favorite for the Red Bull seat. However, some also see it as a matter of public opinion without substantial proof and don’t believe he’s better than Perez. With Lawson’s F1 drive more than guaranteed in 2025, we doubt he will get the Red Bull seat from the get-go. Moreover, a stop-over at AlphaTauri will be a blessing.

Editorial Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of EssentiallySports.

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